What you will learn:
- The state of the crypto markets in the summer of 2022.
- The bear market is a combination of consumer price inflation causing the cost of capital to go up, UST collapsing, and crypto funds getting caught by a combination of the previous two factors.
- Compared to the early crypto bear markets, the last few were more influenced by macro factors and industry contagion.
- Price-based capitulation looks over for the most part but time-based capitulation is still in its early phase.
- Forward-looking macro data almost guarantees a recession, particularly in Europe.
- The markets price in a Fed pivot in 2023 but continuing inflation prints and new political/economic crises could be banana skins.