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Will the Ukrainian counter-offensive end the war?

Welcome to an update about the imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive in the war. Many hope it will be the beginning of the end of the war, but is that really the case?
Will the Ukrainian counter-offensive end the war?


  • What's going wrong for Russia.
  • Why the tide shifted.
  • Ukraine's plans and prospects.
  • Russia's plans and prospects.

Infighting in the Russian leadership:


Russia's approach vs Europe's approach:

Ukraine's plans and prospects:

Zelensky would strike in Russia proper:


A successful offensive does not have to be the end:

  • Russian winter offensive went nowhere but relevancy of Bakhmut TBD
  • New equipment does not equal military wins ahead
  • Both may be motivated to continue this war

Russia's prospects:

Practically and ideologically tied to the outcome of the war: