Will the Ukrainian counter-offensive end the war?
Agenda:
- What's going wrong for Russia.
- Why the tide shifted.
- Ukraine's plans and prospects.
- Russia's plans and prospects.
Infighting in the Russian leadership:
Lol. Prigozhin trolls Shoigu, citing the Defense Minister’s “many years of experience conducting military operations” (Shoigu is widely known for lacking any such experience). The daggers are out. Shoigu’s probable plan is to let Wagner get annihilated. https://t.co/ZEzdU5Gfre
— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) May 12, 2023
The dynamics between Putin, Prigozhin, and Shoigu/Gerasimov make zero military sense.
— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) May 12, 2023
But they make a great deal of sense from the perspective of regime preservation.
This is now the most logical frame through which to analyze the Ukraine War IMO. https://t.co/7QjKo1bx1a
Prigozhin: "As soon as we take Bakhmut, then it will be the task of the Airborne Forces or other units is to keep it”
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) May 14, 2023
His plan is pretty clear. To take/destroy the remaining buildings in Bakhmut and proclaim victory. Then leave it to MoD to defend against Ukrainian counterattack
This is why I think another mobilization wave is very likely later this year, once the current Russian efforts at recruitment, and hodgepodge of attempts to create new PMC groupings or find other ways to get more manpower, prove unsuccessful.
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 2, 2023
The amazing logic of Putin's system https://t.co/A9hUCiD5V1
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) May 12, 2023
Russia's approach vs Europe's approach:
Obviously words don't auto-translate into guns but the EU moving to "war economy" rhetoric *before* Russia (an actually warring party) is very reflective of the vibes of the entire war and explains much of why things turned out as they did. https://t.co/NVrgCJYPeS
— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) May 12, 2023
RUSSIA'S WAR ECONOMY (OR LACK THEREOF)
— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) May 10, 2023
I have been expressing skepticism about Russia's war economy for months now. https://t.co/CQURN4InOM (@devarbol started on kremlin's underground factories earlier).
Ukraine's plans and prospects:
Zelensky would strike in Russia proper:
Scoop: Zelensky, in private meetings with top military aides, has plotted bold attacks inside Russia, according to communications intercepted by U.S. spies. The leaks reveal a more aggressive side of Zelensky. W/ @ikhurshudyan https://t.co/4xe0M93JkX
— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) May 13, 2023
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/
A successful offensive does not have to be the end:
- Russian winter offensive went nowhere but relevancy of Bakhmut TBD
- New equipment does not equal military wins ahead
- Both may be motivated to continue this war
Mike @KofmanMichael and I wrote about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and what comes afterwards. Although Ukraine will likely make gains, this offensive is unlikely to end the war. Western countries need a plan for supporting Ukraine for a long war.https://t.co/E9VpyB8Lie
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 10, 2023
Russia's prospects:
Lots of speculation about events in Bakhmut, so here are my two cents:
— Jack Margolin (@Jack_Mrgln) May 5, 2023
1. It’s possible that Wagner stays at least some time longer, but in face of coming counteroffensive and w their exhausted forces, its not a bad time to bow out and let someone else claim the failure.
Practically and ideologically tied to the outcome of the war:
A lot of people don't understand, but for a lot of smart people, the idea that losing this war will lead to an apocalypse on the level of 17 or 91 is the main idea why they support this war (Murz and Strelkov as the prime examples). https://t.co/fPfJ26smxN
— devcroix ⚔️ 🏵 (@devarbol) May 13, 2023